{
  "schema": "prefield-public-forecast-registration/v1",
  "forecast_id": "mx-enco-2026-10",
  "market": "Mexico",
  "market_id": "mx",
  "wave": "2026-10",
  "kind": "forward",
  "status": "sealed_awaiting_outcome",
  "registered_date": "2026-09-30",
  "frozen_at": "2026-09-30T13:25:56.254984+00:00",
  "target": "INEGI ENCO original series (microdata)",
  "release_expected": "2026-11-05",
  "fieldwork_window": "2026-10-01 to 2026-10-20",
  "fieldwork_start_mexico": "2026-10-01T00:00:00-06:00",
  "conservative_seal_deadline_utc": "2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00",
  "synthetic_respondents": 300,
  "targets": {
    "headline": "ICC",
    "components": 5,
    "survey_items": 15
  },
  "content_sha256": "f868dbfde03f013a4d9b4945548e7d8f17ecc4e536c9b2424e9c3d663d200234",
  "plan_sha256": "5c852c44fd55d028eaab369e01677a720d09bfad543984deafedaba030d80eaf",
  "canonicalization": "SHA-256 of UTF-8 JSON excluding content_sha256; keys sorted; ensure_ascii=false; separators comma and colon without spaces",
  "scoring_contract": {
    "primary": "absolute ICC point error against October original-series microdata",
    "primary_pass": "absolute ICC error <= 2.0 points AND strictly smaller than frozen carry-forward absolute error",
    "secondary": "five component point errors and mean absolute net error over all 15 items",
    "within_band": "absolute error <= sealed band_icc_points (2.0 points)",
    "band_interpretation": "preregistered error tolerance, not a statistical confidence interval",
    "baseline_win": "strictly smaller absolute headline error than frozen carry-forward",
    "seasonal_baseline": "frozen October 2025 original-series ICC",
    "outcomes": "keep misses; no fitting or model selection after outcomes arrive"
  },
  "comparison_baselines": {
    "carry_forward": {
      "period": "2026-08",
      "icc": 46.6
    },
    "seasonal_naive": {
      "period": "2025-10",
      "icc": 45.69
    }
  },
  "limitations": [
    "This tests the native Spanish calibration battery. Studio production prompt parity and historical training configuration remain unverified.",
    "The synthetic population is adults in localities of 100,000 or more: a proxy for the ENCO 32-city universe.",
    "Predictive accuracy remains unmeasured until the human release is scored. The error tolerance is not a confidence interval."
  ],
  "disclosure": "Forecast values remain private until scoring; the committed digest and timestamp are public.",
  "timestamp": {
    "authority": "FreeTSA",
    "standard": "RFC 3161",
    "signed_at_utc": "2026-09-30T13:26:27+00:00",
    "verification": "signature, nonce and SHA-256 message imprint verified against the pinned FreeTSA root",
    "response": "https://prefield.ai/proof/mx-2026-10/prediction.tsr",
    "request": "https://prefield.ai/proof/mx-2026-10/prediction.tsq",
    "signer_certificate": "https://prefield.ai/proof/mx-2026-10/tsa.crt",
    "root_certificate": "https://prefield.ai/proof/mx-2026-10/cacert.pem",
    "files_sha256": {
      "prediction.tsq": "fae7fed1e3e10a55aa4980d80c0d7224f9ea19a7a31f5db2397204bb7c193223",
      "prediction.tsr": "2bbfae24b7bad73d8d77323ff600bfc1deb554b84ac58e7f919130ea84173abf",
      "tsa.crt": "8bfb0305bb64e2571ca507552ef3245cb1c2fee8728e0ff8689225081ea13467",
      "cacert.pem": "2151b61137ffa86bf664691ba67e7da0b19f98c758e3d228d5d8ebf27e044438"
    }
  }
}